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Gov. Tim Walz had the best 15 months of any politician in America between May of 2023, when the Democratic-trifecta delivered on a long wish list of progressive legislation, to his selection as Democratic vice presidential nominee in the summer of 2024.

The next 15 months were a disaster. As Shakespeare’s Juliet says, “O Fortune, Fortune, all men call thee fickle.” Some of what’s happened was beyond his control, at times tragically so, like the assassination of Melissa Hortman, who was the successor he desperately needed.

As is so often the case, the dark clouds were visible during Walz’s 15-month honeymoon if you knew where to look; e.g., our reporting in the summer of 2023 that roughly half of the people charged in the Feeding Our Future case had other state contracts. In 2024, this time as Walz was being feted by national Democrats, we detailed the likelihood of widespread fraud in the autism program.

Asked about it roughly six months later, Walz was oblivious.

And so Walz is reaping what he sowed, especially his apparent lack of focus on the details of governing, and particularly what was happening in the Department of Human Services.

Apparently the Housing Stabilization Services program was so easy to game that word got back to a couple guys in Philly, who set up a business and started billing phony hours, according to federal charges unveiled Thursday. The lead prosecutor on all the fraud cases, Joseph Thompson, referred to this as “fraud tourism.”

For whatever his politics — my sense is that he’s a career prosecutor genuinely outraged by what he’s found — Thompson’s Thursday press conference was an anvil falling on Walz’s reelection campaign for a third term. In asserting that as much as half of the $18 billion spent in Medicaid waiver programs was stolen since 2018, Thompson introduced another phrase for GOP ad writers: “Industrial scale fraud.”

Walz now faces a few intractable problems beyond his control:

1. The story is endless. DHS has 1,300 open cases in its Medicaid program integrity unit.  Each crime produces a stream of stories — search warrants, indictments, trials, convictions, sentencings — each with its own embarrassing revelations.
2. There’s no easy message fix. Even while his approval numbers hold relatively steady, the issue is clearly hurting him. Lately they’ve been making a big show of tackling it, shutting down Housing Stabilization Services, appointing a program integrity officer, etc. But that only draws attention to his worst issue, and makes him seem reactive. But he also can’t pretend it’s not there, lest he appear indifferent to such a huge crisis.

Maybe, just maybe, he can use his remaining credibility to make a sweeping proposal to reform our social safety net, while taking responsibility for the missteps that got us here.

For instance, why are we outsourcing social services to private businesses which are turning around and stealing the money? Bring the whole thing in-house, where fraud is minimal, and where we can better track performance. His allied public unions would love it.

More likely, he’s going to hope the Republican clown car gifts him an easy opponent — a strong possibility! — while he focuses on attacking President Donald Trump. He did his best Friday to tie his latest problems to Trump, during an appearance hitting Washington Republicans for failing to give relief to Minnesotans who are about to endure a spike in their health insurance premiums.

In response to a question about the feds’ press conference and the eye-popping $9 billion figure, Walz responded, “It’s been very clear that this is being driven from D.C.” The $9 billion figure, he added, is “sensationalism.” DHS officials in attendance then sounded skeptical notes about the $9 billion claim.

For those of us who want a robust discussion of the state’s future during next year’s election, a Walz campaign that’s focused on Trump is an altogether depressing state of affairs.

If Walz has few good options, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party doesn’t have many either.

Who would run in his place?

And who are the adults in the room who can tell him he’s better off not running?

Happy holidays!